Dividend Aristocrats Future Total Return

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Estimating the expected 5 years future total returns are based on two main components for dividend growth stocks:

• Dividend yield
• Change in share price

The change in share price often comes from dividend growth which is mainly driven by earnings per share growth and the difference between the share price and the fair value. The expected price-to-earnings ratio over the next 5 years or the average dividend yield over the last 5 years is often used to estimate the change in the share price. The assumption made is that the share price will return over time to this average value.

To estimate the future total return the following values are added together:

• Estimated EPS growth next 5 years, as an indicator for the average dividend growth
• Average dividend yield, assuming
• Extra return due to over/undervaluation

The table below lists the top-10 Dividend Aristocrats with the highest estimated future total return for the next 5 years (CAGR), the EPS estimate for the next 5 years, and the extra positive or negative return due to over/undervaluation. The dividend score is also a factor that should be considered when evaluating those dividend stocks.