Janus Henderson is forecasting that investors will receive up to $1.39 trillion in dividends this year, this estimate is up slightly from a previous estimate, according to the Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index quarterly update released on Monday.
Key points:
- The forecast of $1.39 trillion in dividends is just 3% below the pre-pandemic peak
- Worldwide 84% of companies increased their dividends or held them steady.
- US dividends rose 5.2%, while payouts in Europe jumped 66.4% on a year-to-year basis
In the second quarter of this year, the dividend amounts paid worldwide rose 26.3 percent year-on-year to $471.7 billion. This is still 6.8 percent below the level of the second quarter of 2019, before the outbreak of corona.
Recovery in dividends is stronger than expected and Janus Henderson has upgraded its forecast. The latest FY-2021 estimates in the report are up 2.2 percentage points from an earlier one, which is just 3% below the pre-pandemic peak.
Dividends from companies restarting payments totaled $33.3bn and accounted for 75% of the underlying growth in Q2 2021. Worldwide 84% of companies increased their dividends or held them steady.
The report shows different growth rates per region.
The second quarter is traditionally dominated by European companies because they typically pay an annual dividend in Q2. The payouts jumped 66.4% on a year-to-year basis. France and Sweden saw the strongest rebound while Germany, Switzerland, and Norway lagged behind. About 75% of the European companies increased their dividends or held them steady compared to Q2 2020. The biggest European Dividend payers in total amounts are:
- Nestle
- Sanofi
- Allianz
- Axa
- BASF
- Deutsche Telekom
Most of the US companies tended to continue paying their dividends in 2019, during the first year of the pandemic, hence there was a smaller rebound effect during the second quarter. US dividends rose 5.2%. The biggest US Dividend payers in total amounts are:
- Microsoft
- AT&T
- Exxon Mobil
- Apple
- Walmart
- Johnson & Johnson
“For 2021, we are upgrading our forecast to $1.39 trillion, an increase of 2.2 percentage points since our May edition. This results in headline dividend growth of +10.7% to within 3% of the 2019 total – a remarkable recovery, though the weakness of the dollar and higher special dividends are making a contribution. Underlying growth, therefore, is forecast to be 8.5%”, according to the report. Below is an overview of the annual dividends and the 2021 forecast.
Source: Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index Q2-2021 (August 2021)
